Rent increases in the UK have slowed in recent months, while house price growth has also moderated, according to official figures.

The Office for National Statistics said the average private rent went up by 3.5% to £1,374 in the 12 months to February, the same as in January.

• Average rents increased to £1,430 (3.6%) in England, £828 (5.5%) in Wales, and £1,022 (2.4%) in Scotland, in the 12 months to February. In Northern Ireland, average rents increased to £875 (5.2%), in the 12 months to December 2025.

• In England, private rents annual inflation was highest in the North East (7.6%), and lowest in London (1.7%), in the 12 months to February.

The average value of a home increased by 1.3%, to £268,000, in the 12 months to January; this annual growth rate is down from 1.9%, in the 12 months to December.

Average house prices increased to £290,000 (1.1%) in England, £210,000 (2.0%) in Wales, and £188,000 (1.3%) in Scotland.

As inflation and interest rate expectations have shifted dramatically since the start of the Iran war, fixed mortgage rates have gone up. Financial markets are now pricing in several interest rate hikes from the Bank of England, rather than cuts.

The average two-year fix has risen from 4.83% at the start of March to 5.56% today – the highest since September 2024, according to Moneyfacts. Mortgage rates have inverted, where the five-year is now priced lower than the two-year fix.

The average five-year fix has risen from 4.95% to 5.54%, the highest since January 2024.

Rachel Springall, finance expert at Moneyfacts, said:

The turmoil in fixed mortgage rate pricing has worsened, as ongoing hikes have made the two- and five-year fixed rates invert, where five-year is slightly cheaper on average. Swap rates have been inverted for a few days now, so it was only a matter of time for the market to catch up. There is hope this will be a temporary blip until the markets settle down, but it depends how long volatility prolongs. This is unusual, however, its all down to how the markets foresee interest rate setting, many expect higher rates over the shorter-term.

This abnormality happened after the fall out from the mini-budget, and it took around three years for the inversion to end. In a traditional market, the average two-year fixed deal would be lower than the five-year, but the unrest in the Middle East is causing concerns over path of interest rate setting, with inflation expected to spike in the months ahead.

The uncertainty around the future of interest rates has led to mortgage lenders pulling more than 1,500 deals from the market since the start of March, leaving less than 6,000. Springall said:

If deals come back within the coming days, they will likely be at inflated rates to catch up with the current state of play. After all, a volatile mortgage market tends to be a more expensive one.

Seeking advice will be essential right now, but even brokers are rushed off their feet trying to keep on top of the mortgage mayhem.

The UK business secretary Peter Kyle has said the prospect of high oil prices lasting months, pushing up inflation and interest rates, meant “everything is on the table” as the government searches for ways to limit the impact on households and businesses.

Speaking at an event in London last night to reward companies that pay suppliers on time, Kyle said tackling profiteering and high import prices were top of his agenda along with closer ties with the EU to spur growth.

Kyle, who said the Iran conflict meant he was getting little sleep, started working with Rachel Reeves on Monday to identify imports where the tariff could be cut or in some cases raised to protect domestic industries. He recently increased tariffs on steel imports.

We know there will be an impact on our economy from the events in the Middle East. We are making assessments as to what those impacts could be, so that we are prepared and resilient should any of the waves being created in that region begin lapping at our shores.

My department has begun outreach to a whole variety of businesses deep into the roots of the economy. Everything will be assessed – supply chains and products that are central to a thriving and successful economy and society.

He said the range of interventions could be broad and he would act “with urgency and boldness”.

Kyle was animated about the need to crack down on businesses profiteering from the conflict by hiking prices, even where a particular industry is little affected.

In the financial crisis and during the Covid-19 pandemic we saw people profiteering for personal gain. We have an outstanding regulator in the Competition and Markets Authority and we will be tasking them with making very rapid interventions.

Turning to the EU, he said there were collaborations on health and climate technology in addition to defence tie-ups that could promote growth while it was going through a difficult period.

He said there were “no treaty obligations” in many areas where the UK could join forces with the EU.

If oil prices stay above $100 a barrel for years and move closer to $150, it will spark at global “stark and steep recession,” the boss of the US fund manager BlackRock has told the BBC.

Larry Fink, the chief executive of BlackRock, which controls assets worth $14tn (£10.4tn) and is one of the biggest investors in businesses around the world, said that if Iran “remains a threat” and oil prices remain elevated there would be “profound implications” for the global economy.

Fink said he could envision two scenarios – one where the conflict ends and Iran is accepted by the international community, which would allow the price of oil – currently just below $100 a barrel – fall back to levels seen before the war.

In the other scenario, Fink said there could be “years of above $100, closer to $150 oil, which has profound implications in the economy” which would result in “a probably stark and steep recession”.

Fink said countries need to be pragmatic about their energy mix by using all sources available to them. While the UK has some solar and wind power and hydrocarbons, if oil prices were to rise to $150 for three or four years, “you would have so many countries moving so rapidly towards solar and maybe even wind,” he said.

Some analysts have suggested that there are some echoes of the run-up to the 2007-08 financial crisis in the markets.

Oil and gas prices are surging and there are some signs of cracks in the financial system. BlackRock is one of several firms to have limited withdrawals by nervous investors from private credit funds.

But Fink insisted that there won’t be a repeat of the financial crisis, when several banks around the world collapsed or had to be rescued, because he believes financial institutions today are more secure.

“I don’t see any similarities at all,” he said. “Zero.”

The BlackRock boss also denied there was an AI bubble. Brushing off fears of massive job losses, he said that artificial intelligence will create an “enormous amount of jobs” – but “electricians and welders and plumbers” rather than office jobs. Fink said:

I do not believe we have a bubble at all.

Could we have one or two failures in AI? Sure, that I’m fine with.

I believe there’s a race for technology dominance. I believe that if we do not invest more, China wins. I believe it’s mandatory that we are aggressively building out our AI capabilities.

Last year, BlackRock was part of a consortium that bought one of the world’s largest data centre providers, Aligned Data Centres, in a $40bn deal.

The biggest problem that is holding back the expansion of AI in the US and Europe is the cost of energy, he said.

Earlier this week, in his annual letter to shareholders, Fink said the boom in artificial intelligence risked widening inequality, with only a small number of firms and investors going to reap benefits.

European stock markets have risen following strong gains in Asia overnight, while the price of gold has risen.

The FTSE 100 index in London is 1% ahead, a rise of nearly 100 points, at 10,063. Germany’s Dax and Italy’s FTSE MiB both climbed 1.7% while France’s CAC increased 1.5% and Spain’s Ibex is 1.6% ahead.

Spot gold climbed more than 2% to $4,564 an ounce. However, it has lost 13% since the Iran war started on 28 February, having traded at $5,277 an ounce the day before, raising questions over its status as a safe-haven asset.

Oil prices have fallen this morning on hopes of a ceasefire in the Middle East, after Donald Trump sent his 15-point peace plan to Tehran – although Iran launched further missile attacks. Brent crude has dropped 6.3% at $97.96 a barrel.

The UK has offered to host an international security summit to draw up a “viable, collective plan” to reopen the strait of Hormuz as economic fallout from the Iran conflict continues.

Defence chiefs have been discussing how they could unblock the vital shipping lane, through which about 20% of global oil supplies usually pass, amid the Middle East crisis unleashed by the US and Israel.

The Ministry of Defence has already sent military planners to US Central Command to look at options for getting tankers through the strait, which has in effect been closed by Tehran’s threat of retaliatory attacks.

More than 30 countries including the United Arab Emirates, the UK, France, Germany, Canada and Australia have signed a joint statement agreeing to work on “appropriate efforts” to safeguard the waterway.

Food price inflation in the UK has also eased, but the Food and Drink Federation warned this could the “the calm before the storm,” as the conflict in the Middle East threatens to push up food prices again, becaue of higher energy and fertiliser costs.

Food and non-alcoholic drink prices rose at an annual rate of 3.3% last month, down from 3.6% in January.

Confectionery, particularly chocolate, pulled the annual rate lower, as prices fell in February but rose a year ago. This was partially offset by small upward contributions from dairy products and vegetables.

Prices fell in nine categories, with the largest drops for: olive oil (-10.4%), flours (-8.3%) and pizza (-4.9%).

Prices rose the fastest for beef and veal (20.6%), offal (17.0%) and whole milk (13.1%).

Karen Betts, chief executive of the Food and Drink Federation, said:

While food inflation fell slightly in February 2026, I am concerned that this is the calm before the storm. The longer the conflict in the Middle East goes on, the bigger its impact will be on food prices. With food and drink price inflation already running above historical averages, heightened energy, maritime fuel and fertiliser costs will put further pressure on prices.

Food and drink is an essential, bought by every household, every week. While it can take several months for cost rises to filter fully through to shop shelves, the cost of the Iran conflict will be felt by shoppers this year. If government is serious about tackling the rising cost of living, it must provide our industry with at least the same support as other manufacturing sectors. The current energy shock is yet another structural shock our industry will have to absorb, on top of the Ukraine war, the costs of realigning food law with the EU once again, and new regulatory burdens.

The federation’s members have reported that UK haulage companies have implemented an increase on emergency fuel surcharge of up to 20%. And the ocean freight lines have also implemented an emergency bunker surcharge of around $400 per container to cover higher oil cost.s

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

Inflation in the UK was unchanged last month, as expected – before the Iran war drove up global energy costs, threatening a renewed price jump.

Official figures showed the consumer prices index (CPI) stayed at an annual rate of 3% in February, the same as in January. Economists had expected it to stay at 3%.

Clothing made the largest upward contribution to the monthly change while motor fuels made the largest, offsetting downward contribution, the Office for National Statistics said.

The outlook for inflation has changed dramatically since the onset of the Middle East conflict, which has sent oil and gas prices soaring after the effective closure of the key transit route of the strait of Hormuz.

This means the interest rate outlook has also shifted, with markets now expecting several rate hikes, rather than cuts, this year.

Charlie Ambler, co-chief investment fficer at wealth management firm Saltus, said:

While we expected February’s inflation data to remain stable around 3%, increasing oil prices are widely expected to push up the headline rate of inflation to near double the 2% target later this year, threatening the Bank’s slow and steady rate cutting cycle and frustrating markets. Should this materialise, markets are unlikely to respond well.

While the Bank of England has signalled a cautious and data dependent approach to monetary policy, resulting in a hold at 3.75% last week, financial markets have already reacted sharply to the changing global outlook. Investors are now pricing in the possibility of multiple interest rate increases this year, with some expectations pointing to as many as four rises before the end of 2026. The gap between market expectations and the Bank’s own guidance highlights just how uncertain the inflation outlook has become.

Oil prices dipped this morning to hover around $100 a barrel, after Donald Trump sent a 15-point peace plan to Iran and voiced optimism about ending nearly a month of war.

Brent crude fell 4.1% to $100.2 a barrel, while New York light crude lost 3.5% to $89.12 a barrel. Both benchmarks rose nearly 5% on Tuesday.

However, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said it had launched a new wave of attacks against locations in Israel including Tel Aviv and Kiryat Shmona, as well as US bases in Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain, according to Iranian state media.

Asian stock markets rebounded strongly, with Japan’s Nikkei up 2.87% while South Korea’s Kospi rose 1.6%.

The Agenda

• 8.45am BST: ECB president Christine Lagarde speaks

• 9am BST: Germany Ifo business climate

• 9.30am BST: UK house prices and rents

• 11am BST: US Weekly mortgage applications