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Jan and Earl Robinson have been caravanning and camping for nearly two decades but they’ve decided 2026 is the year they’re “not going anywhere”.

After the cost of filling their Ford Everest 4WD soared by 65% in just a few weeks, the retirees, who live in Charters Towers in rural Queensland, indefinitely postponed their next adventure just six weeks before they were due to leave.

They were worried about finding enough diesel on the road and don’t want to take fuel that could be used by farmers or other essential services.

“In our opinion, caravanning is a real luxury. We just don’t feel it’s warranted at the moment,” says Jan, 71. “I feel really sorry for the caravan parks and places like that.”

The energy shock from the war in the Middle East and subsequent skyrocketing prices of petrol and diesel, as well as fuel shortages in some parts of Australia, have upended people’s travel plans for the Easter school holidays and beyond.

Regional tourism in particular is expected to take a hit despite the industry trying to reassure would-be holidaymakers before the Easter long weekend of 3-6 April, usually one of Australia’s busiest periods for domestic travel.

“We understand the sensitivities,” the Australian Tourism Industry Council (Atic) chief executive, Erin McLeod, says. “But we believe strongly that the Easter period particularly will still have appropriate fuel levels for people to be able to continue with the plans.”

Of the 1.3 million additional visitors expected to take overnight trips to regional Australia in April compared with March, 86% are expected to drive themselves there, working out to an additional 600,000 cars on the road, according to Atic.

The national body wrote to the federal government earlier this week urging it to prioritise fuel distribution to regional drive routes and tourism destinations over Easter.

Petrol prices have surged to 250c a litre and diesel about 300c a litre, from 180c at the start of March, after the US and Israel bombed Iran.

In addition to the soaring prices, independent fuel distributors, who supply much of regional Australia, have struggled to get enough supply from the major companies that import most of the country’s petrol and diesel.

Hundreds of service stations across the country have run out of at least one type of fuel.

Sydney mother of two Belinda Morgan and her family have abandoned their Easter holiday plans and will stay at home in Bondi because they are concerned about fuel availability, especially in the longer term, and want to drive as little as possible.

“It’s not the cost so much. It feels quite wasteful to be making decisions about going on trips that kind of feel like you could avoid it,” she says. “I don’t believe we’re anywhere close to any kind of reconciliation with Iran.”

Morgan says her husband was going to take their nine-year-old daughter camping in Nelson Bay with some friends who live in Avalon in Sydney’s northern beaches area.

“We were going to have a night in Sydney with the younger ones and the other mum, then go up to Avalon and spend Easter Saturday there,” she says.

Other people are sticking with their Easter holiday plans, with some adjustments.

The tourism agency that promotes north-east Victoria has encouraged people to embrace “fuel-saving options” such as catching public transport to popular high country towns or embracing “walkable” activities once there.

Lloyd Tarrant, a young father from Melbourne, says he and his family will go ahead with their road trip to Bawley Point on the New South Wales south coast, but he’s already planned where to get fuel along the way.

Tarrant plans to drive to Canberra, where he’ll pick up his wife and their daughter, stay for a couple of nights and fill up with petrol there before they head to the coast.

“I think, realistically, we’ll be fine,” he says. “If I have a full tank leaving Melbourne, I’ll be able to get to Canberra and I’m sure I’ll be able to find fuel there and then just rinse and repeat on the way back.”

James Goodwin, the chief executive of Accommodation Australia, which represents hotels, motels and smaller businesses, says he’s aware of some Easter cancellations but not a “mass wave”.

“There’s definitely a softening of demand heading into the Easter period,” he says. “But having said that, the business on the books is still reasonably good, considering the shocks that we are facing at the moment.”

Goodwin says the Easter school holidays will be the “first real test” of how Australia’s tourism sector withstands the war’s effects on aviation capacity and fuel confidence.

He said he was more concerned about the winter holiday period if the war continues.

Wayne and Martine Eames, who live in the Victorian town of Nagambie, have already cancelled their June holiday, on which they planned to travel along the Canning stock route, a 4WD track in Western Australia.

“It’s very remote,” says Wayne. “And that’s our fear. It’s 1,800 kms and there’s only one fuel stop in the middle, in a community.”

Wayne says he only recently bought a new 4WD ute and camping set-up for the trip.

“It’s a $170,000 outlay for the truck and the camper,” he says. “And here it is sitting idle in my driveway.”